Przesłanki i przyczyny wahań periodycznych w różnych teoriach cyklu koniunkturalnej

Abstract

One of the main issues connected with theoretical analysis of business cycles is the problem of determining to what extent a given cycle is an effect of the influence exerted by exogenous factors on the economic system, and to what extent it is a product of a definite economic system. Whether or not a given theory of cycle is an endogenous concept may be determined by analyzing its construction. A construction of each theory of cycle contains two major elements: — a set of conditions, whose fulfillment (according to the authors of the theory) makes it possible for cyclical fluctuations in the level of economic activity to appear (this element has been called „prerequisites of the cycle" in the article); — a set of impulses generating cyclical fluctuations (called „causes of the cycle" in the article). Depending on whether prerequisites and causes of the cycle are determined by noneconomic factors or by the internal structure of economic relationships, a given solution will be presenting an exogenous or an endogenous concept of the business cycle. The article is an attempt at outlining changes occurring in prerequisites and causes of cyclical fluctuations, which aims at showing the interweaving of exogenous and endogenous concepts in the history of economic thought beginning with creation of the subjective-marginal trend and ending with assimilation of Keynes' achievements by the theory of economic dynamics.