Obraz demograficzny świata u progu XXI wieku

Abstract

Przedmiotem tego opracowania jest sytuacja demograficzna współczesnego świata, ukształtowana w wyniku przemian demograficznych, społeczno-ekonomicznych i kulturowych. Główny cel pracy stanowi wszechstronne naświetlenie najważniejszych elementów sytuacji ludnościowej oraz dokonanie próby ich syntezy. Szczegółowej analizie poddano dystrybucję przestrzenną ludności, jej rozwój i reprodukcję, a także strukturę demograficzną poszczególnych krajów. Podsumowaniem całości badanej problematyki jest przestrzenna typologia demograficzna.

Nowadays one witnesses the reshaping of world’s demographic picture. The main aims of the paper are thorough analysis of the key elements and attempt to synthesize them. Territorial distribution of population, its development and reproduction, as well as demographic structure are discussed in detail. In conclusion one can find population spatial typology. The article bases on available data which were found in official publications of certain states and organizations and international bodies. The author refers to researches and diagnosis published by other scientists. Presented researches prove that demographic picture of modern world varies. The general presentation of that phenomenon is states’ (184) typology built on 19 demographic features. The features describe demographic situation e.g. the territorial structures of populations, migrations, demographic development, natural increase, age and sex structure. K-means clustering procedure was used to build the spatial typology. Names of certain types were given after the dominant diagnostic demographic feature. They are as follow: Type 1 – very high intensity of births and deaths. Type 2 – high intensity of births, low intensity of deaths. Type 3 – exceptionally high population growth and net migration rates coincident with extremely high preponderance of males. Type 4 – high population growth coincident with high net migration and relatively high natural increase. Type 5 – very high level of demographic aging and very long life expectancy of males and females. Type 6 – high percentage of grown up population coincident with low birth rate and fertility rate and death rate. Type 7 – domination with populous families, high preponderance of males. Type 8 – very high intensity of deaths, accompanied by high intensity of net migration.