Wybrane metody prognozowania cen w handlu zagranicznym
Streszczenie
The article deals with some selected methods of international
price forecasting. First, specific features of international
price forecasting are formulated and need for a special methodology is emphasised. Next, some econometric modele of time series
are discussed, foremost among them pure random walk process, moving
- average process, autoregressive process, and finally a
combined ARIMA model. Furthemore, selected simple models of binary
choice are presented, like linear probabilistic model, LOGIT
model, and PROBIT model. Particular usefulness of stochastic
»odelling for price forecasting is demonstrated on the basis of
general characteristics of international price mechanisms.