dc.contributor.author | Wdowiński, Piotr | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2016-04-28T07:09:20Z | |
dc.date.available | 2016-04-28T07:09:20Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2005 | |
dc.identifier.issn | 0208-6018 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/11089/17897 | |
dc.description | Badania zostały przeprowadzone w ramach projektu KBN Nr 2H02B01624. | pl_PL |
dc.description.abstract | In the paper we estimate exchange rate models. The theoretical part of the paper includes
the purchasing power parity theory (PPP) and monetary model. We also propose an extended
review of literature on modeling nominal and real exchange rates. In the empirical part we
estimate quarterly exchange rate models of PLN/USD and PLN/EUR during 1990-2002. We
have assessed the PPP model for consumer price (CPI) and producer price (PPI) indices along
with the monetary model including interest rates. We have also assessed a predictive power
of models within a framework of Fair and Shiller (1990) based on combined forecasts. The
research has shown that we cannot confirm theoretical relations between exchange rates and
fundamentals in terms of estimated parameters’ size. The monetary models have been found
to be superior to PPP models in terms of their forecasting accuracy. | pl_PL |
dc.description.abstract | W prezentowanym tekście podjęliśmy tematykę modelowania kursów walutowych.
Część teoretyczna artykułu została poświęcona teorii parytetu siły nabywczej PPP oraz
modelowi monetarnemu wraz z przeglądem literatury, wskazującym na genezę modelowania
nominalnych i realnych kursów walutowych. W części empirycznej dokonaliśmy oszacowania
kwartalnych modeli kursów walutowych PLN/USD i PLN/EUR w okresie 1990-2002. Badaniem
objęliśmy teorię parytetu PPP dla dwóch indeksów cen, tj. indeksu cen towarów i usług
konsumpcyjnych (CPI) oraz indeksu cen produkcji sprzedanej przemysłu (PPI), oraz modelu
monetarnego z uwzględnieniem stóp procentowych. Dokonaliśmy ponadto oceny jakości
prognoz generowanych przez obie klasy modeli w oparciu o ideę łączenia prognoz według
podejścia Faira-Shillera (1990). Na podstawie przeprowadzonego badania można wnioskować,
że w analizowanym okresie nie udało się potwierdzić związków teoretycznych pomiędzy kursem
walutowym a zmiennymi o charakterze fundamentalnym w kontekście wartości ocen parametrów.
Modele monetarne okazały się lepsze od modeli parytetu siły nabywczej z prognostycznego
punktu widzenia. | pl_PL |
dc.description.sponsorship | Zadanie pt. „Digitalizacja i udostępnienie w Cyfrowym Repozytorium Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego kolekcji czasopism naukowych wydawanych przez Uniwersytet Łódzki” nr 885/P-DUN/2014 zostało dofinansowane ze środków MNiSW w ramach działalności upowszechniającej naukę. | pl_PL |
dc.language.iso | pl | pl_PL |
dc.publisher | Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego | pl_PL |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica;193 | |
dc.subject | kurs walutowy | pl_PL |
dc.subject | parytet siły nabywczej | pl_PL |
dc.subject | teoria monetarna | pl_PL |
dc.subject | prognozowanie | pl_PL |
dc.subject | łączenie prognoz | pl_PL |
dc.title | Empiryczne modele kursów walutowych: ocena trafności prognoz | pl_PL |
dc.title.alternative | Empirical Exchange Rate Models: An Assessment of Forecasting Accuracy | pl_PL |
dc.type | Article | pl_PL |
dc.rights.holder | © Copyright by Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego, Łódź 2005 | pl_PL |
dc.page.number | 109-142 | pl_PL |
dc.contributor.authorAffiliation | Uniwersytet Łódzki, Katedra Ekonometrii | pl_PL |
dc.references | Abel A., Dornbusch R., Huizinga J., Marcus A. (1979), Money Demand during Hyperinflation, „Journal of Monetary Economics” , 5, 97-104. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Adler M., Lehman B. (1983), Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run, „Journal of Finance” , 39, 1471-1487. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Balassa B. (1964), The Purchasing Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal, „Journal of Political Economy” , 72, 584-596. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Baxter M., Stockman A. C. (1989), Business Cycles and the Exchange Rate Regime: Some International Evidence, „Journal of Monetary Economics”, May, 23(3), 377-400. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Bilson J. F. O. (1978a), Rational Expectations and the Exchange Rate, [w:] Frenkel J. A., Johnson H. G. (eds.), The Economics o f the Exchange Rates, Addison-Wesley, Reading, 75-96. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Bilson J. F. O. (1978b), The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Some Empirical Evidence, „IMF Staff Papers” , 25, 48-75. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Boothe P., Glassman D. (1987), O ff the Mark: Lessons fo r Exchange Rate Modelling, „Oxford Economic Papers” , September, 39, 443-457. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Branson W. H. (1977), Asset Markets and Relative Prices in Exchange Rate Determination, „Sozialwissenschaftliche Annalen” , 1, Physica-Verlag, Vien, 69-89. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Breuer J. (1994), Purchasing Power Parity: A Survey o f and Challenge to Recent Literature, [w:] Williamson J. (ed.), Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates, Institute for International Economics, Washington. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Cassel G. (1916), The Present Situation o f the Foreign Exchanges, „Economic Journal” , March. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Cassel G. (1918), Abnormal Deviations in International Exchanges, „Economic Journal”, September. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Cheung Y., Lai K. (1993), Long-run Purchasing Power Parity During the Recent Float, „Journal of International Economics” , 34, 181-192. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Corbae D., Ouliaris S. (1988), Cointegration and Tests o f Purchasing Power Parity, „Review of Economics and Statistics” , 70, 508-521. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Cornell B. (1977), Spot Rates, Forward Rates and Exchange Market Efficiency, „Journal of Financial Economics” , 5, 55-65. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Cumby R. E., Obstfeld M. (1982), International Interest Rate and Price-Level Linkages Under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review o f Recent Evidence, „Working Paper” , April, 142, Department of Economics, Columbia University. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Darby M. (1983), Movements in Purchasing Power Parity: The Short and Long Runs, [w:] Darby M., Lothian J. (eds), The International Transmission o f Inflation, University of Chicago Press, Chicago. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Davutyan N., Pippenger J. (1985), Purchasing Power Parity Did Not Collapse During the 1970's, „American Economic Review”, 75(5), 1151-1158. | pl_PL |
dc.references | De Gregorio J., Giovannini A., Wolf H. (1994), International Evidence on Tradables and Nontradables Inflation, „European Economic Review” , 38, 1225-1256. | pl_PL |
dc.references | De Jong E. (1988), Expectation Formation: Criteria and an Assessment, „De Economist", 136(4), 435-467. | pl_PL |
dc.references | De Jong E. (1995), An Assessment o f Recent Trends in Exchange Rate Economics, Proceedings of the Conference Exchange Rate Determination, Stuttgart-Haigerloch (Germany). | pl_PL |
dc.references | Dickey D. A., Fuller W. A. (1979), Distributions of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root, „Journal of the American Statistical Association”, 74, 427-431. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Dornbusch R. (1976a), Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics, „Journal of Political Economy” , December, 84(6), 1161-1176. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Dornbusch R. (1976b), Capital Mobility, Flexible Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Equilibrium, [w:] Claassen E., Salin О. (eds), Recent Issues in International Monetary Economics, North-Holland, Amsterdam, 29-48. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Dornbusch R. (1978), Monetary Policy Under Exchange Rate Flexibility, „Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference Series”, 2. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Dornbusch R. (1987), Exchange Rates and Prices, „American Economic Review” , 77(1), 93-106. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Dornbusch R., Frankel J. A. (1988), The Flexible Exchange Rate System: Experience and Alternatives, [w:] Bomer S. (ed.), International Finance and Trade, Macmillan, London. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Dornbusch R., Krugman P. (1976), Flexible Exchange Rates in the Short Run, „Brookings Papers on Economic Activity” , 3, 537-575. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Edison H. (1987), Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run: A Test o f the Dollar/Pound Exchange Rate (1890-78), „Journal of Money, Credit and Banking” , 19, 376-387. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Edison H., Klovan J. T. (1987), A Quantitative Reassessment o f the Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis: Evidence from Norway and the United Kingdom, „Journal of Applied Econometrics” , 2, 309-333. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Enders W. (1988), A RIM A and Cointegration Tests o f PPP under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes, „Review of Economics and Statistics” , 70, 504-508. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Engle R. F., Granger C. W. J. (1987), Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing, „Econometrica” , 55, 251-276. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Fair R. C., ShilJer R. J. (1990), Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models, „American Economic Review”, June, 80(3), 375-389. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Fisher E., Park J. (1991), Testing Purchasing Power Parity under the Null Hypothesis o f Co-integration, „The Economic Journal” , 101, 1476-1484. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Flood R. P., Rose A. K. (1993), Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest fo r Fundamentab, „Centre for Economic Policy Research Discussion Paper” , September, 838. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Frankel J. A. (1979), On the Mark: A Theory o f Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials, „American Economic Review” , 69, 610-622. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Frankel J. A. (1986), International Capital Mobility and Crowding out in the U.S. Economy: Imperfect Integration o f Financial Markets or Goods Markets?, [w:] Hafer R. (ed.), How Open is US Economy, Lexington Books, Lexington. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Frankel J. A., Froot K. A. (1990), Chartists, Fundamentalists and the Demand fo r Dollars, [w:] Courakis A. S., Taylor M. P. (eds), Private Behaviour and Government Policy in Interdependent Economies, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 73-126. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Frenkel J. A. (1976), A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence, „Scandinavian Journal of Economics” , 78, 200-224. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Frenkel J. A. (1977), The Forward Exchange Rate, Expectations and the Demand fo r Money: The German Hyperinflation, „American Economic Review” , 67, 653-670. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Frenkel J. A. (1979), Further Evidence on Expectations and the Demand fo r Money during the German Hyperinflation, „Journal of Monetary Economics” , 5, 81-96. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Frenkel J. A. (1981a), The Collapse o f Purchasing Power Parities during the 1970‘s, „European Economic Review”, 16, 145-165. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Frenkel J. A. (1981b), Flexible Exchange Rates, Prices and the Role o f 'News': Lessons from the 1970's, „Journal of Political Economy”, 89(4). | pl_PL |
dc.references | Frenkel J. A., Clements C. (1981), Exchange Rates in the 1920's: A Monetary Approach, [w:] Flanders M., Razin A. (eds), Development in an Inflationary World, Academic Press, New York, 283-318. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Frenkel J. A., Johnson H. G. (eds) (1978), The Economics o f Exchange Rates: Selected Studies, Addison-Wesley, Reading. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Frenkel J. A., Mussa M. (1980), The Efficiency o f Foreign Exchange Markets and Measures o f Turbulence, „American Economic Review”, May, 70(2), 374-381. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Friedman M., Schwartz A. J. (1963), A Monetary History o f the United States, 1867-1960, Princeton University Press, Princeton. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Froot K. A., RogolT K. (1994), Perspectives on PPP and Long-run Real Exchange Rates, „NBER Working Paper” , December, 4952. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Gajda J. B. (1988), Wielorównaniowe modele ekonometryczne: estymacja, symulacja, sterowanie, PWN, Warszawa. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Gilbert M. i in. (1958), Comparative National Price Products and Price Levels: A Study o f Western Europe and the United States, Organization for European Economic Cooperation, Paris. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Gilbert M., Kravis I. В. (1954), An international Comparison o f National Products and the Purchasing Power o f Currencies: A Study o f the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy, Organization for European Economic Cooperation, Paris. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Giovanetti G. (1992), A Survey o f Recent Empirical Tests o f the Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis, „Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review” , 180, 81-101. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Giovannini A. (1988), Exchange Rates and Traded Goods Prices, „Journal of International Economics” , 24, 45-68. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Haberler G. (1949), The Market fo r Foreign Exchange and the Stability o f the Balance o f Payments: A Theoretical Analysis, „Kyklos”, 3(3), 193-218. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Haberler G. (1961), A Survey o f International Trade Theory, „Special Papers in International Economics” , 1, Princeton University, Princeton, 46-47. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Hakkio C. S. (1984), A Re-examination o f Purchasing Power Parity: A Multi-country and Multi-period Study, „Journal of International Economics” , 17, 265-277. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Hodrick R. J. (1978), An Empirical Analysis o f the Monetary Approach to the Determination o f the Exchange Rate, [w:] Frenkel J. A., Johnson H. G. (eds), The Economics o f Exchange Rates, Addison-Wesley, Reading. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Hooper P., Morton J. E. (1982), Fluctuation in the Dollar: A Model o f Nominal and Real Exchange Rate Determination, „Journal of International Money and Finance” , 1, 39-56. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Houthakker H. S. (1958), Exchange Rate Adjustment, [w:] Factors Affecting the United States Balance o f Payments, US Congress Joint Exonomic Committee, Washington, 287-304. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Hsieh D. (1982), The Determination o f the Real Exchange Rate: The Productivity Approach, „Journal of International Economics” , 12, 355-362. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Huzinga J. (1987), An Empirical Investigation o f the Long-run Behavior o f Real Exchange Rates, „Carnegie-Rochester Series on Public Policy” , 27, 149-215. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Isard P. (1977), How Far Can We Push the 'Law o f One Price’?, „American Economic Review”, December, 67(5), 942-948. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Johansen S. (1988), Statistical Analysis o f Cointegration Vectors, „Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control” , 12, 231-254. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Johansen S. (1991), Estimation and Hypothesis Testing o f Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models, „Econometrica”, 59(6), 1551-1580. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Keim R. (2001), Ekonometryczny model kursu złotego w latach 1992-1998, „Ekonomista” , 2, 201-226. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Keynes J. M. (1930), A Treatise on Money, Macmillan, London. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Kim H. (1990), Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run: A Contegration Approach, „Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking”, 12, 491-503. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Kouri P. (1976), The Exchange Rate and the Balance o f Payments in the Short Run and in the Long Run: A Monetary Approach, „Scandinavian Journal of Economics”, 78, 280-304. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Kravis I. B., Lipsey R. (1978), Price Behavior in the Light o f Balance o f Payments Theories, „Journal of International Economics” , May, 8(2), 193-246. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Krueger A. O. (1969), Balance-of-Payments Theory, „Journal of Economic Literature” , March, 7, 1-26. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Krugman P. (1978), Purchasing Power Parity and Exchange Rates: Another Look at the Evidence, „Journal of International Economics” , 8, 397-407. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Kugler P., Lenz С. (1993), Multivariate Cointegration Analysis and the Long Run Validity o f PPP, „Review of Economics and Statistics” , 75, 180-184. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Levich R. M. (1985), Empirical Studies o f Exchange Rales: Price Behavior, Rate Determination and Market Efficiency, [w:] Jones R. W., Kenen P. B. (eds), Handbook o f International Economics, Vol. II, North Holland, Amsterdam. | pl_PL |
dc.references | MacDonald R. (1988), Purchasing Power Parity: Some 'Long Run' Evidence from the Recent Float, „De Economist” , 136(2), 239-252. | pl_PL |
dc.references | MacDonald R. (1997), What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Long and Short o f It, „IMF Working Paper” , 21. | pl_PL |
dc.references | MacDonald R., Taylor M. P. (1991), The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Long-run Relationships and Coefficient Restrictions, „Economic Letters” , October, 37, 179-185. | pl_PL |
dc.references | MacDonald R., Taylor M. P. (1992a), Exchange Rate Economics: A Survey, „IMF Staff Papers” , 39, 1-57. | pl_PL |
dc.references | MacDonald R., Taylor M. P. (1992b), The Monetary Model o f the Exchange Rate: Long-Run Relationships and Short-Run Dynamics, Washington, International Monetary Fund. | pl_PL |
dc.references | MacDonald R., Taylor M. P. (1993), The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Rational Expectations, Long-Run Equilibrium, and Forecasting, „IMF Staff Papers” , 40(1). | pl_PL |
dc.references | MacDonald R., Taylor M. P. (1994), The Monetary Model o f the Exchange Rate: Long-Run Relationships, Short-Run Dynamics and How To Beat a Random Walk, „Journal of International Money and Finance” , 13(3), 276-290. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Machlup F. (1972), The Alignment o f Foreign Exchange Rates, Praeger, New York. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Mark N. (1990), Real Exchange Rates in the Long Run: An Empirical Investigation, „Journal of International Economics” , 28, 115—136. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Marston R. C. (1987), Real Exchange Rates and Productivity Growth in the United States and Japan, [w:] Arndt S., Richardson J. D. (eds), Real-financial Linkages among Open Economies, MIT Press, Cambridge. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Marston R. C. (1989), Real and Nomina! Exchange Rate Variability, „Empirica” , 16(2), 147-160. | pl_PL |
dc.references | McNown R., Wallace M. (1989), Cointegration Tests fo r Long-run Equilibrium in the Monetary Exchange Rate Model, „Economic Letters” , December, 31, 263-267. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Meese R. A. (1986), Testing fo r Bubbles in Exchange Markets: A Case o f Sparkling Rates, „Journal of Political Economy” , April, 94, 345-373. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Meese R. A., Rogoff К. (1983a), Empirical Exchange Rate Models o f the Seventies: Do They Fit Out o f Sample?, „Journal of International Economics”, 14, 3-24. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Meese R. A., Rogoff К. (1983b), The Out-of-sample Failure o f Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Sampling Error or Misspecification?, [w:] Frankel J. A. (ed.), Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, Chicago. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Meese R. A., Rogoff К. (1988), Was It Real? The Exchange Rate Interest Differential Relation Over the Modern Floating Exchange Rale Period, „Journal of Finance” , 43, 933-948. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Milo W. (1998), Prognozowalność systemów ekonomicznych, „Rector’s Lectures”, 36, Wydawnictwo Akademii Ekonomicznej, Kraków. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Mussa M. (1976), The Exchange Rate, the Balance o f Payments, and Monetary and Fiscal Policy under a Regime o f Controlled Floating, „Scandinavian Journal of Economics” , May, 78(2), 229-248. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Mussa M. (1979), Empirical Regularities in the Behaviour o f Exchange Rates and Theories o f the Foreign Exchange Market, [w:] Brunner K., Meitzer A. H. (eds.), Policies fo r Employment, Prices and Exchange Rates, „Camegie-Rochester Conference”, 11, North- Holland, Amsterdam. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Officer L. R. (1976), The Purchasing-Power-Parity Theory o f Exchange Rates: A Review Article, „IMF Staff Papers” , 23(1), 1-60. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Pentecost E. J. (1993), Exchange Rate Dynamics, Edward Elgar Publishing, Aldershot. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Roll R. (1980), Violations o f PPP and Their Implications fo r Efficient International Commodity Markets, [w:] Sarnat M., Szego G. P. (eds.), International Trade and Finance, Vol. I, Ballinger, Cambridge, 133-176. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Roll R. (1980), Violations o f PPP and Their Implications fo r Efficient International Commodity Markets, [w:] Sarnat M., Szego G. P. (eds.), International Trade and Finance, Vol. I, Ballinger, Cambridge, 133-176. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Stein J. i in. (eds), (1995), Fundamental Determinants o f Exchange Rates, Oxford University Press, Oxford. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Stockman A. C. (1980), A Theory o f Exchange Rate Determination, „Journal of Political Economy”, 88(4), 673-698. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Strzała K. (2002), Weryfikacja hipotez makroekonomicznych - ewolucja podejść na przykładzie PPP, [w:] Kufel T., Pilatowska M. (red.), Analiza szeregów czasowych na początku XXI wieku, Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu im. Mikołaja Kopernika, Toruń. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Summers R., Heston A. (1991), The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set o f International Comparisons, 1950-1988, „Quarterly Journal of Economics” , 106, 327-368. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Wdowiński P. (2003), Ekonometryczne modele kursu równowagi złotego, Materiały IEiS, Projekt KBN, Katedra Ekonometrii, Uniwersytet Łódzki, Łódź. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Wdowiński P., Zglińska-Pietrzak A., Tomasik J. (1997), Kilka uwag na temat interpretacji parametrów strukturalnych modelu ekonometrycznego, [w:] Milo W., Badania ekonometryczne, t. 1, Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego, Łódź, 125-135. | pl_PL |
dc.references | White H. (1980), A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity, „Econometrica” , 48, 817-838. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Williamson J. (1983), The Exchange Rate System, Institute for Internationa] Economics, Washington. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Woo W. T. (1985), The Monetary Approach to Exchange Rate Determination Under Rational Expectations, „Journal of International Economics” , 18, 1-16. | pl_PL |
dc.references | Yeager L. B. (1958), A Rehabilitation o f Purchasing-Power Parity, „Journal of Political Economy” , December, 516-530. | pl_PL |