Strategia bezpośredniego celu inflacyjnego w polityce NBP. Wyzwania i zagrożenia

Abstract

The aim of the article is to prove that the question of the optimal monetary strategy is still open. In the first section, the author offers a full presentation of various monetary strategies. There are two approaches to the question. The first one assumes that the final goal (low inflation) can be reached through achieving indirect and operational goals. The second approach may be called a model - optimizing one. This approach is reflected in a direct anti-inflation strategy. The analysis leads to a conclussion that it is not possible to find an effective monetary strategy without considering institutional and economic realia. The second section is an attempt to analyze the National Bank of Poland (NBP) experience within the monetary policy pursued in 1990-1998 and after 1998, when a new body of the central bank - the Monetary Policy Council - was appointed. In the conclusion section the author emphasizes the fact that the adoption of direct inflation targeting means a necessity to pursue more transparent, flexible and more reliable monetary policy.