Wpływ przestrzennej analizy ryzyka na efektywność ubezpieczeń na życie

Abstract

The paper aims to present the results of study that verify the impact of the spatial analysis of risk of death to the level of efficiency of life insurance. The paper consists of three parts. The first part consists the description of comparison study of the regions. Preliminary regions are grouped according to selected characteristics. Segmentation is made for 16 preliminary regions (Polish voivodeships) using six variables. The used variables are: the average age of people living in the region (Var 1), the frequency of deaths in middle-aged people living in the region (Var 2), the value of the parameter of Gompertz function B (Var 3), the value of the parameter of Gompertz function h (Var 4), middle-aged men's participation in the total number of middle-aged people living in the region (Var 5). In order to compare the cluster analysis is applied. As a result of the comparison preliminary regions are grouped into two areas so-called profitability regions. The second part contains the results of pure rates calculation for classical life insurance contracts. The rates are calculated using the frequency of death in respect of profitability regions. In the third part the financial balance after the mixed insurance is calculated. The calculations are based on the rate of mortality estimated in respect of profitability regions. In order to estimate the effective rate of return the approach proposed by D. Moffett (Moffett, 1979) is used. The results of this study con- firm the hypothesis that the spatial risk analysis has an impact on the growth of efficiency of life insurance. The proposed way of risk assessment (regionalization) in addition to the life insurance industry can also be applied in the optimization of financial flows in the pension system.