Bayesian Exponential Survival Model in the Analysis of Unemployment Duration Determinants

Abstract

The primary objective of the work is to identify demographic and socio-economic factors influencing the unemployment duration in the recent period in Poland. Different approaches to the problem have been applied. In this paper we have used a survival parametric model in Bayesian approach. The following determinants have been concerned in the model: sex, marital status, education level, information about continuing an education, region of Poland, and age of respondent. The empirical analysis is based on “Household budgets in 2008” survey of Central Statistical Office and indicates the main factors influencing unemployment duration.