France’s bilateral relations: a quantitative analysis (1992–2023)

Abstract

This study evaluates the evolution of France’s bilateral relations with eleven major global and regional actors—China, India, Japan, the United States, Brazil, Nigeria, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, Ukraine, and Turkey—between 1992 and 2023. Using the Bilateral Relations Index (BRI), a multidimensional tool capturing conflictual and cooperative interactions, the article assesses long-term trajectories, fluctuations, and turning points in French foreign relations. The analysis reveals consistently strong ties with European NATO partners, particularly Germany and the United Kingdom, as well as unexpectedly stable cooperation with Turkey. Relations with Russia deteriorated markedly after 2014 and especially after 2022, mirrored by a substantial rise in France–Ukraine relations. Outside Europe, France’s partnerships with India and Japan improved significantly, while relations with China remained more volatile and never fully positive. Overall, the BRI captures both structural continuities in French foreign policy and the impact of major geopolitical shocks on specific dyads.