Methods of forecasting VAT revenues for the state budget of Ukraine
Streszczenie
VAT is the main indirect tax in Ukraine, among other countries, providing one
of the largest items of state budget revenues. The presence of the VAT refund
procedure and the need to cover public spending with the revenues from VAT
administration require that an effective method of planning and forecasting VAT
revenues for the new fiscal year be used.
The purpose of the article was to analyze the effectiveness of two methods of
forecasting of VAT revenues, such as the moving average method and the method
of correlation and regression. This was done by analysing the effectiveness of
forecasts made for previous years and comparing them with actual data to make
the forecast of VAT revenues using these methods for 2014–2016 years and identifying
the main causes of problems in the forecasting process.
The results show that the forecasts based on two methods (correlation and
regression analysis and double moving average) are sufficiently accurate. After
making certain adjustments, these methods can be used at the national level.
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