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Inflation Forecasts Versus Shaping Inflation Expectations. Comparative Analysis / Prognoza Inflacji Wobec Kształtowania Oczekiwań Inflacyjnych. Analiza Porównawcza

dc.contributor.authorSzyszko, Magdalenaen
dc.date.accessioned2016-03-04T11:40:24Z
dc.date.available2016-03-04T11:40:24Z
dc.date.issued2015-12-17en
dc.identifier.issn1508-2008en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11089/17247
dc.description.abstractThis article jointly analyzes inflation expectations of consumers and inflation forecasts. Its starting point is the predominant role of expectations in monetary policy. This is crucial market information in the decision-making process of the central bankers as it may show the actual future inflation. On the other hand, the central bank wants to influence expectations in order to facilitate achieving the main goals of monetary policy. Inflation forecasting is a tool for shaping public expectations. In the research, covering four central banks (the National Bank of Hungary, National Bank of Poland, the Czech National Bank, Sveriges Riksbank), the author analyzes the interdependencies of inflation forecasts and inflation expectations of consumers. Data on expectations are derived from the surveys and quantified. Then non-parametric measures of association are calculated. The results confirm the hypothesis on the existence of such relationships. The strength of this interdependence varies among countries, from weak to strong. The study opens the field for further discussions on strengthening this relationship.en
dc.description.abstractPrognoza inflacji jest narzędziem, którego główną funkcją jest kształtowanie oczekiwań inflacyjnych uczestników życia gospodarczego. W obejmującym 4 banki centralne porównawczym badaniu empirycznym (Narodowy Bank Węgier, Narodowy Bank Polski, Narodowy Bank Czech, Bank Szwecji), autorka analizowała istnienie współzależności między prognozami inflacji banków centralnych a oczekiwaniami inflacyjnymi konsumentów. Dane o oczekiwaniach pozyskane są z sondaży i skwantyfikowane. Do badań ilościowych wykorzystano nieparametryczne miary współzależności. Wyniki badań potwierdzają istnienie takich współzależności. Ich siła jest różna w badanych krajach i zmienia się od słabej do umiarkowanej. Badanie otwiera pole do poszukiwań dalszych współzależności.en
dc.publisherWydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiegoen
dc.relation.ispartofseriesComparative Economic Research;18en
dc.rightsThis work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.en
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0en
dc.subjectinflation forecastsen
dc.subjectinflation forecast targetingen
dc.subjectinflation expectationsen
dc.subjectprognoza inflacjien
dc.subjectcelowanie w prognozęen
dc.subjectoczekiwania inflacyjneen
dc.titleInflation Forecasts Versus Shaping Inflation Expectations. Comparative Analysis / Prognoza Inflacji Wobec Kształtowania Oczekiwań Inflacyjnych. Analiza Porównawczaen
dc.page.number139-156en
dc.contributor.authorAffiliationPoznan School of Banking, Finance and Banking Departmenten
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dc.identifier.doi10.1515/cer-2015-0033en


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