Long-term EU energy dependence on Russia and its transformation after 2022

Abstract

This article examines the long-term evolution of the European Union’s dependence on Russian mineral fuels and its transformation after 2022. The analysis combines Eurostat trade data for 1999–2021 with complementary post-invasion evidence from European and international sources. Using structural comparisons and correlation-based diagnostics, the study identifies dominant fuel categories and differences in adjustment across Member States. The findings show that oil and gas created deep path dependencies that limited the speed of decoupling. Although direct imports fell sharply after 2022 and diversification accelerated, the process remains uneven and indirect exposure has not disappeared. The article contributes by linking historical trade structures with the emerging post-war regime and by distinguishing between transit roles and domestic energy policy. The results inform debates on EU energy security and the governance of diversification. The results indicate that diversification capacity is strongly conditioned by pre-existing infrastructure and trade geography.