| dc.contributor.author | Jegorow, Dorota | |
| dc.contributor.author | Rubaj, Piotr | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2026-07-10T10:27:25Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2026-07-10T10:27:25Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2026-06-10 | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 1231-1952 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/11089/58864 | |
| dc.description.abstract | This article examines the long-term evolution of the European Union’s dependence on Russian mineral fuels and its transformation after 2022. The analysis combines Eurostat trade data for 1999–2021 with complementary post-invasion evidence from European and international sources. Using structural comparisons and correlation-based diagnostics, the study identifies dominant fuel categories and differences in adjustment across Member States. The findings show that oil and gas created deep path dependencies that limited the speed of decoupling. Although direct imports fell sharply after 2022 and diversification accelerated, the process remains uneven and indirect exposure has not disappeared. The article contributes by linking historical trade structures with the emerging post-war regime and by distinguishing between transit roles and domestic energy policy. The results inform debates on EU energy security and the governance of diversification. The results indicate that diversification capacity is strongly conditioned by pre-existing infrastructure and trade geography. | en |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.publisher | Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego | pl |
| dc.relation.ispartofseries | European Spatial Research and Policy;1 | en |
| dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0 | |
| dc.subject | energy security | en |
| dc.subject | EU energy policy | en |
| dc.subject | mineral fuel imports | en |
| dc.subject | Russia EU trade relations | en |
| dc.subject | import dependence and diversification | en |
| dc.title | Long-term EU energy dependence on Russia and its transformation after 2022 | en |
| dc.type | Article | |
| dc.page.number | 79-101 | |
| dc.contributor.authorAffiliation | Jegorow, Dorota - John Paul II Catholic University of Lublin, Faculty of Social and Technical Sciences | en |
| dc.contributor.authorAffiliation | Rubaj, Piotr - John Paul II Catholic University of Lublin, Faculty of Social and Technical Sciences | en |
| dc.identifier.eissn | 1896-1525 | |
| dc.references | AH-VOUN, D., CHYONG, C. K. and LI, C. (2024), ‘Europe’s energy security: From Russian dependence to renewable reliance’, Energy Policy, 184, 113856. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113856 | en |
| dc.references | AN, H., ZHONG, W., CHEN, Y., LI, H. and GAO, X. (2014), ‘Features and evolution of international crude oil trade relationships: A trading-based network analysis’, Energy, 74, pp. 254–259. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2014.06.095 | en |
| dc.references | BANKIER.PL (2023), ‘Jedynie siedem krajów UE zmniejszyło import z Rosji’, https://www.bankier.pl/wiadomosc/Media-jedynie-siedem-krajow-UE-zmniejszylo-import-z-Rosji-8468680.html [accessed on: 15.02.2025]. | en |
| dc.references | BASDEKIS, C., CHRISTOPOULOS, A., KATSAMPOXAKIS, I. and NASTAS, V. (2022), ‘The Impact of the Ukrainian War on Stock and Energy Markets: A Wavelet Coherence Analysis’, Energies, 15 (21), 8174. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15218174 | en |
| dc.references | BRUEGEL (2022), ‘REPowerEU: Will EU countries really make it work?’, https://www.bruegel.org/blog-post/repowereu-will-eu-countries-really-make-it-work [accessed on: 18.09.2025]. | en |
| dc.references | BRUEGEL (2024), ‘Future European Union gas imports: Balancing different objectives’, https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/future-european-union-gas-imports-balancing-different-objectives [accessed on: 16.09.2025]. | en |
| dc.references | CREA (2025), ‘EU imports of Russian fossil fuels in third year of invasion surpass financial aid sent to Ukraine’, https://energyandcleanair.org/publication/eu-imports-of-russian-fossil-fuels-in-third-year-of-invasion-surpass-financial-aid-sent-to-ukraine/ [accessed on: 24.10.2025]. | en |
| dc.references | CHEBOTAREVA, G., TVARONAVIČIENĖ, M., GORINA, L., STRIELKOWSKI, W., SHIRYAEVA, J. and PETRENKO, Y. (2022), ‘Revealing Renewable Energy Perspectives via the Analysis of the Wholesale Electricity Market’, Energies, 15 (3), 838. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15030838 | en |
| dc.references | CZECH, K. and WIELECHOWSKI, M. (2023), ‘Russian aggression against Ukraine and the changes in European Union countries’ macroeconomic situation: Do energy intensity and energy dependence matter?’, Economics and Business Review, 9 (4). https://doi.org/10.18559/ebr.2023.4.1073 | en |
| dc.references | DELOITTE (2022), ‘2022 Oil and Gas Industry Outlook, Deloitte Insights’, https://www2.deloitte.com [accessed on: 13.08.2023]. | en |
| dc.references | DONG, G., QING, T., DU, R., WANG, C., LI, R., WANG, M., TIAN, L., CHEN, L., VILELA, A. L. M. and STANLEY, H. E. (2020)., ‘Complex network approach for the structural optimization of global crude oil trade system’, Journal of Cleaner Production, 251, 119366. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119366 | en |
| dc.references | EUROPEAN COMMISSION (2019), ‘The European Green Deal, Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the European Council, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions’, Brussels, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52019DC0640 [accessed on: 01.02.2026]. | en |
| dc.references | EUROPEAN COMMISSION (2021), ‘European Energy: Annual Report 2021, Directorate-General for Energy’, Brussels, https://energy.ec.europa.eu [accessed on: 13.08.2023]. | en |
| dc.references | EUROPEAN COMMISSION (2022), ‘REPowerEU Plan, Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the European Council, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions’, Brussels, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52022DC0230 [accessed on: 01.02.2026]. | en |
| dc.references | EUROPEAN COMMISSION (2024), ‘EU trade relations with Russia. Facts, figures and latest developments’, https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/russia_en [accessed on: 27.11.2024]. | en |
| dc.references | EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT (2020), ‘Energy Security in the EU’s External Policy, European Parliamentary Research Service’, Brussels, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank [accessed on: 13.08.2023]. | en |
| dc.references | EUROSTAT (2023), ‘EU energy mix and import dependency’, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=EU_energy_mix_and_import_dependency#EU_energy_dependency_on_Russia [accessed on: 27.11.2024]. | en |
| dc.references | EUROSTAT (2025), ‘Imports of energy products to the EU down in 2024’, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20250321-1 [accessed on 21.03.2025]. | en |
| dc.references | FINLEY, M. and MIKULSKA, A. (2023), Wielding the Energy Weapon: Differences Between Oil and Natural Gas. https://doi.org/10.25613/G9P2-3F78 | en |
| dc.references | FLORES-CHAMBA, J., LÓPEZ-SÁNCHEZ, M., PONCE, P., GUERRERO-RIOFRÍO, P. and ÁLVAREZ-GARCÍA, J. (2019), ‘Economic and Spatial Determinants of Energy Consumption in the European Union’, Energies, 12 (21), 4118. https://doi.org/10.3390/en12214118 | en |
| dc.references | GADAWA, M. (2025), ‘Historyczna decyzja ws. Rosyjskiego gazu. Węgry oburzone. Reagują’, Money.pl – portal finansowy, https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/ue-konczy-z-rosyjskim-gazem-wegry-i-slowacja-juz-odpowiadaja-7228474176781248a.html [accessed on: 04.12.2025]. | en |
| dc.references | GOLDTHAU, A. C. and YOUNGS, R. (2023), ‘The EU Energy Crisis and a New Geopolitics of Climate Transition’, JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies, 61 (S1), pp. 115–124. https://doi.org/10.1111/jcms.13539 | en |
| dc.references | GOLDTHAU, A., EICKE, L. and WEKO, S. (2020), ‘The Global Energy Transition and the Global South’, [in:] HAFNER, W. M. and TAGLIAPIETRA, S. (eds), The Geopolitics of the Global Energy Transition, 73, pp. 319–339. Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-39066-2_14 | en |
| dc.references | GOLDTHAU, A. and SITTER, N. (2020), ‘Power, authority and security: The EU’s Russian gas dilemma’, Journal of European Integration, 42 (1), pp. 111–127. https://doi.org/10.1080/07036337.2019.1708341 | en |
| dc.references | IEA (2021), Global Energy Review 2021, International Energy Agency, Paris, https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/d0031107-401d-4a2f-a48b-9eed19457335/GlobalEnergyReview2021.pdf [accessed on: 15.07.2023]. | en |
| dc.references | IEA (2022), European Union Energy Policy Review, International Energy Agency, Paris, https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/iea-energy-policy-reviews_8550daed-en.html [accessed on: 15.07.2023]. | en |
| dc.references | IEA (2023), World Energy Outlook 2023 – Analysis, https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2023 [accessed on: 17.05.2024]. | en |
| dc.references | IEA (2024), Share of European Union gas demand met by Russian supply, 2001-2024 – Charts – Data and Statistics, https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/share-of-european-union-gas-demand-met-by-russian-supply-2001-2024 [accessed on: 17.09.2025]. | en |
| dc.references | JONEK-KOWALSKA, I. (2022), ‘Multi-criteria evaluation of the effectiveness of energy policy in Central and Eastern European countries in a long-term perspective’, Energy Strategy Reviews, 44, 100973. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2022.100973 | en |
| dc.references | KALUS, K. (2025), ‘LNG z Rosji. Głównym odbiorcą w Europie jest Francja’, Money.pl – portal finansowy, https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/lng-z-rosji-glownym-odbiorca-w-europie-jest-francja-7126476393933632a.html [accessed on: 04.12.2025]. | en |
| dc.references | KATSAMPOXAKIS, I., CHRISTOPOULOS, A., KALANTONIS, P. and NASTAS, V. (2022), ‘Crude Oil Price Shocks and European Stock Markets during the COVID-19 Period’, Energies, 15 (11), 4090. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15114090 | en |
| dc.references | LABELLE, M. C. (2024), ‘Breaking the era of energy interdependence in Europe: A multidimensional reframing of energy security, sovereignty, and solidarity’, Energy Strategy Reviews, 52, 101314. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2024.101314 | en |
| dc.references | LIM, B., YOO, J., HONG, K. and CHEONG, I. (2021), ‘Impacts of Reverse Global Value Chain (GVC) Factors on Global Trade and Energy Market’, Energies, 14 (12), 3417. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14123417 | en |
| dc.references | MANOWSKA, A., RYBAK, A., DYLONG, A. and PIELOT, J. (2021), ‘Forecasting of Natural Gas Consumption in Poland Based on ARIMA-LSTM Hybrid Model’, Energies, 14 (24), 8597. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14248597 | en |
| dc.references | MATA PÉREZ, M. D. L. E., SCHOLTEN, D. and SMITH STEGEN, K. (2019), ‘The multi-speed energy transition in Europe: Opportunities and challenges for EU energy security’, Energy Strategy Reviews, 26, 100415. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2019.100415 | en |
| dc.references | NIELSEN, H., WARDE, P. and KANDER, A. (2018), ‘East versus West: Energy intensity in coal-rich Europe, 1800–2000’, Energy Policy, 122, pp. 75–83. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.07.006 | en |
| dc.references | NIU, X., CHEN, W. and WANG, N. (2023), ‘Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Topological Evolution of the Global Crude Oil Trade Network’, Energies, 16 (4), 1728. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16041728 | en |
| dc.references | NURYYEV, G., KOROL, T. and TETIN, I. (2021), ‘Hold-Up Problems in International Gas Trade: A Case Study’, Energies, 14 (16), 4984. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14164984 | en |
| dc.references | PUTTACHAI, W., PHADKANTHA, R. and YAMAKA, W. (2022), ‘The threshold effects of ESG performance on the energy transitions: A country-level data’, Energy Reports, 8, pp. 234–241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2022.10.187 | en |
| dc.references | RYBAK, A., RYBAK, A. and KOLEV, S. D. (2022), ‘The import of energy raw materials and the energy security of the European Union – the case of Poland’, Gospodarka Surowcami Mineralnymi – Mineral Resources Management, pp. 29–48. https://doi.org/10.24425/gsm.2022.143630 | en |
| dc.references | SAMPEDRO, J., VAN DE VEN, D.-J., HOROWITZ, R., RODÉS-BACHS, C., FRILINGOU, N., NIKAS, A., BINSTED, M., IYER, G. and YARLAGADDA, B. (2024), ‘Energy system analysis of cutting off Russian gas supply to the European Union’, Energy Strategy Reviews, 54, 101450. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2024.101450 | en |
| dc.references | SHIRAZI, M. and FUINHAS, J. A. (2023), ‘Portfolio decisions of primary energy sources and economic complexity: The world’s large energy user evidence’, Renewable Energy, 202, pp. 347–361. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2022.11.050 | en |
| dc.references | SPIRO, D., WACHTMEISTER, H. and GARS, J. (2025), ‘Assessing the impacts of oil sanctions on Russia’, Energy Policy, 206, 114739. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114739 | en |
| dc.references | SUN, X., WEI, Y., JIN, Y., SONG, W. and LI, X. (2023), ‘The evolution of structural resilience of global oil and gas resources trade network’, Global Networks, 23 (2), pp. 391–411. https://doi.org/10.1111/glob.12399 | en |
| dc.references | THE BRUSSELS TIMES (2025), ‘Zeebrugge is the top destination for Russian LNG in Europe’, https://www.brusselstimes.com/1449926/zeebrugge-main-destination-for-russian-lng-in-europe?utm= [accessed on: 04.12.2025]. | en |
| dc.references | TRADE MAP (2025), Trade statistics for international business development, https://www.trademap.org/Index.aspx [accessed on: 17.09.2025]. | en |
| dc.references | WEINER, C., KOTEK, P. and TAKÁCSNÉ TÓTH, B. (2025), ‘Two decades of changing dependency on Russian gas in Central and Eastern Europe: Strategies versus achievements’, Journal of Contemporary European Studies, 33 (2), pp. 324–343. https://doi.org/10.1080/14782804.2024.2385978 | en |
| dc.references | WNP (2025), ‘Belgijski port jest bramą dla rosyjskiego LNG’, https://www.wnp.pl/energia/belgijski-port-jest-brama-dla-rosyjskiego-lng,995731.html [accessed on: 04.12.2025]. | en |
| dc.references | WU, G., PU, Y. and SHU, T. (2021), ‘Features and evolution of global energy trade network based on domestic value-added decomposition of export’, Energy, 228, 120486. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.120486 | en |
| dc.references | ZHOU, X., ZHANG, H., ZHENG, S., XING, W., ZHAO, P. and LI, H. (2022), ‘The Crude Oil International Trade Competition Networks: Evolution Trends and Estimating Potential Competition Links’, Energies, 15 (7), 2395. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15072395 | en |
| dc.contributor.authorEmail | Jegorow, Dorota - dorotajegorow@kul.pl | |
| dc.contributor.authorEmail | Rubaj, Piotr - piotr.rubaj@kul.pl | |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.18778/1231-1952.33.1.11 | |
| dc.relation.volume | 33 | |